Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 2.104232 2.214805 2.333383 2.471001 2.627650 2.802094 3.013519
2025-06-29 1.975963 2.117766 2.276290 2.469337 2.702078 2.979392 3.344653
2025-07-06 1.858149 2.013844 2.192508 2.417049 2.698669 3.051172 3.546811
2025-07-13 1.809812 1.983046 2.187080 2.451957 2.798520 3.257091 3.954892
2025-07-20 1.785556 1.976880 2.207938 2.517726 2.941217 3.536771 4.532579
2025-07-27 1.738128 1.938146 2.183951 2.521202 2.997487 3.699945 4.972454
2025-08-03 1.697064 1.904173 2.162636 2.524698 3.051701 3.865712 5.469544
2025-08-10 1.633656 1.838582 2.096253 2.460951 2.999998 3.853057 5.614616
2025-08-17 1.594297 1.801714 2.065222 2.443572 3.015055 3.951911 6.031338
2025-08-24 1.559807 1.769436 2.038309 2.429583 3.032964 4.057165 6.511136
2025-08-31 1.529777 1.741594 2.015744 2.419882 3.055887 4.174213 7.087112
2025-09-07 1.512832 1.730012 2.014316 2.440372 3.128835 4.398560 8.145077
2025-09-14 1.462810 1.674212 1.951546 2.368460 3.045601 4.306324 8.126594
2025-09-21 1.439530 1.653174 1.935900 2.366404 3.080585 4.464766 9.199197
2025-09-28 1.402655 1.612784 1.891729 2.318451 3.031878 4.435664 9.480892
2025-10-05 1.393707 1.609531 1.899300 2.350179 3.126127 4.744549 11.969693
2025-10-12 1.393781 1.618304 1.924009 2.409989 3.278443 5.242400 18.430739
2025-10-19 1.376995 1.603342 1.913825 2.413118 3.324113 5.484330 26.143204
2025-10-26 1.361162 1.589161 1.904127 2.416280 3.370007 5.744366 46.765381
2025-11-02 1.328908 1.551401 1.858707 2.358266 3.288062 5.599937 44.707364
2025-11-09 1.309800 1.531538 1.839097 2.342420 3.290991 5.723491 93.411653
2025-11-16 1.292428 1.513669 1.821855 2.329658 3.299097 5.868155 NaN
2025-11-23 1.276895 1.497996 1.807371 2.320803 3.314548 6.044950 NaN